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You have three coins in your pocket, two fair ones but the third biased with the probability of heads $p$ and tails $1-p$. One coin selected at random drops to the floor, landing heads up. How likely is it that it is one of the fair coins?
  1. $1 / \mathrm{p}$
  2. $1 /(1+p)$
  3. $p /(1+p)$
  4. $(1+p) / p$
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4 Comments

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P(F|H) = P(H|F) * P(F) / P(H) --------- Baye’s Theorem
putting the values, we’ll get P(F|H) = 1/(p+1)

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$ \large{\colorbox{yellow}{Detailed video solution of this question with direct time stamp}}$
All India Mock Test 2 - Solutions Part 1

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can i say like this that:

favourable cases : prob of head from fair coin is (1/2) and i have two choices for this(like head can be from any of the two fair coins).

so total favourable cases: 2 * (1/2)

and total cases includes: favourable + unfavourable= [2 * (1/2) + p]

we know prob. of coming head from biased coin is p.

thats why total prob.= (2*(1/2)) / [2*(1/2) + p] = 1/(1+p).

if any one reads this, pls clarify this.

 

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1 Answer

6 votes
6 votes
Let $F, U$, and $H$ be the events that "the selected coin is fair", "the selected coin is unfair", and "the coin lands heads up", respectively. We are given that
$$
P(F)=\frac{2}{3}, \quad P(U)=\frac{1}{3}, \quad P(H \mid F)=\frac{1}{2}, P(H \mid U)=p .
$$
By Bayes' theorem, the probability that one of the fair coins has been selected given that it lands heads up is
$$
P(F \mid H)=\frac{P(H \mid F) P(F)}{P(H \mid F) P(F)+P(H \mid U) P(U)}=\frac{\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{2}{3}}{\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{2}{3}+p \times \frac{1}{3}}=\frac{1}{1+p} .
$$
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