Let's take an example, suppose we want to find probability of collision in first $3$ insertions.
Lets say size of hashtable is $10$.
Only the following cases are possible,
$(n_1,n_2,n_3), (n_1,n_2,c_3),(n_1,c_2,n_3),(n_1,c_2,c_3)$
Where $n_i$ and $c_i$ denotes the case of no collision and collision, respectively, in inserting $i^{th}$ item.
$P(n_1,n_2,c_3) = 1* \frac{9}{10} * \frac{2}{10}$
$P(n_1,c_2,n_3) + P(n_1,c_2,c_3) = P(n_1,c_2) = 1 * \frac{1}{10}$
And $(n_1,n_2,n_3)$ is not a favourable outcome.