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A college has $10$ (non-overlapping) time slots for its courses, and assigns courses to time slots randomly and independently. A student randomly chooses $3$ of the courses to enroll in. What is the probability that there is a conflict in the student's schedule? (answer upto $2$ decimals)
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Not an answer but a frequent silly mistake :

for conflict, you have 10 slots and 3 courses, place 2 courses in a single slot → conflict 

pick 1 out of 3 (don’t care) and place it anywhere and for the rest 2 place it in the same slot

= [3, pick one out of 3] * [10, but don't care Course] * [10, place 2 in single one]

= 3* 10 * 10 = 300

now we use the inclusion-exclusion principle as all 3 in a single slot case, ie in any one of 10 slots, 

= 300 - 10 

= 290

so probability = 0.29 

this Classic example of over-counting, since we counted (all 3 elements in the single slot) → 3 times, but we only removed it a single time,

[when we picked 3 courses say C1 → we get all 3 courses in a single slot, it also repeats for C2 and C3] , counting it “3 times“ so we have to remove it one more time (2 times in total), or we can completely remove it and count it as = 3 * (10 * 10 – 10  ) = 3*(90)

= 270  and now add all 3 in a single case

= 270 + 10 = 280

so, probability = 0.28

why mess up things, when we can use the Complement method, ie count negation(required) and remove it from total possibilities,

  • total = 1000
  • no conflict  = place each one in different slot = 10 * 9 * 8 = 720
  • required = 1000 – 720 = 280
  • hence probability = 0.28    ( yes they asked probability, don’t answer it 280)
     
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2 Answers

9 votes
9 votes
The probability of no conflict is $\dfrac{10 \cdot 9 \cdot 8}{10^3}=0.72$. So the probability of there being at least one scheduling conflict is $0.28.$
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can we not do this from binomial ?

10C3 (0.3)^3(0.7)^7 = 0.27

@Sachin Mittal 1 @GO Classes @Deepak Poonia

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7 votes
7 votes
Let Set of courses = C = {C1, C2, C3}
Let Time Interval = T = {T1, T2, T3,……., T9, T10}
Let’s solve this problem by complement logic i.e. probability of no two course should map to same time interval, which is nothing but probability of one-one function from Set C to Set T.
no of one-one function = 10P3 = 720
total function = 10^3 = 1000
P(one -one ) = 720/1000 = 0.72;
hence, probability of two course map to same time interval = 1 – 0.72 = 0.28
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